Political Science 361/International Studies 361
Issues in World Politics
Summer 2024
Bill
Newmann,
Political
Science Department
Office Hours:
By Appointment only, but I can be available almost any day 9-5:00. Please
email, and we can set up a zoom appointment.
Phone:
Office: 828-2076 (main POLI number)
E-mail:
wnewmann@vcu.edu
Newmann's
home page: www.people.vcu.edu/~wnewmann
with links to other Newmann syllabi and other fun stuff.
POLI 361.
Issues in World Politics. 3 Hours.
Semester
course; 3 lecture hours. 3 credits. An exploration of several significant
issues in world politics. Topics may include peacekeeping and collective
security, international economic competitiveness, global environmental politics
as well as selected others. Topics will vary with current events and trends in
the international arena. Crosslisted as: INTL 361.
Structure
of the Class
This
course is online asynchronous, but I’ve structured the lectures and topics as
if we were in class and I was lecturing to you over the course of 8 weeks, with
two classes per week. There are lectures for each day and a set of
readings for each day, but when you listen to the lectures and when you do the
readings are up to you. The exams and paper are due on specific days. If we
were in class, we’d be on a Tuesday/Thursday schedule, so we’ll use that
loosely as the framework for the due dates for the quiz, exams, and papers.
That means, of course, that you’ll need to finish watching the recorded
lectures and reading the assignments by specific dates.
The
reason I set this up to look like we’re doing this day-by-day, week-by-week in
a classroom is because it’s still the best way to organize your workload so you
don’t fall behind. You might be able to binge the recorded lectures the week
before the exam (the Netflix version of education), but you aren’t likely to do
as well as if you spread it out over the weeks before the exam. Of course,
falling behind in the readings is always a bad idea.
Here
are the basics:
Introduction:
The best part of POLI/INTL 361 is that it allows a professor to teach about the
subjects that they know best, even if they don’t fit into the standard course
options. We’ll focus on two issues in readings and lectures: The Nuclear
Arms Race and US-Chinese Relations. My dissertation and first book were
on nuclear strategy and nuclear arms control. A book I just finished was on US
decision making on policy toward China. Your research paper will look at
a third issue: cyber conflict: the use of computers as weapons.
The
Nuclear Arms Race
The first half of the semester will focus on the impact of nuclear weapons on
world politics. Scholars generally feel there are two nuclear ages. The
first nuclear age is the classic cold war rivalry between the US and
USSR. Both nations had the ability to wipe each other off the face of the
planet, and the effect that had on both nations was, as you might guess,
transformative. Or was it? We’ll look at the classic thinking on
nuclear weapons and deterrence, and address whether nuclear weapons
fundamentally transformed nuclear politics and great power rivalry or whether
they simply represented a more efficient way of destroying your enemy.
This section focuses on US and Soviet nuclear weapons deployments and
capabilities, nuclear strategy, the debates about how to design the best
nuclear deterrent, extended deterrence, the problems of ICBM vulnerability,
ballistic missile defense, and arms control (SALT, START). The second nuclear
age is the post-Cold war era. Scholars generally argue that the ultimate
danger has been reduced (the probability that the US and Russia will attack
each other with thousands of nuclear warheads is very low), but the politics of
nuclear weapons is more complex, and the likelihood of actual use of nuclear
weapons may be greater. What has changed? China has entered the arena as
a growing nuclear power. India and Pakistan, countries that have fought
numerous wars since their 1947 independence, both have growing nuclear
arsenals. North Korea has a small, but technically sophisticated nuclear
arsenal. Iran may or not be building nuclear weapons. Israel has nuclear
weapons (shhhh), but denies it. Taiwan and South Africa were very close
to nuclear capability, but dismantled their programs. The complexity is easy to
see. The old US-Russian deterrent relationship still exists, but how will China
enter that equation? India and Pakistan have their own deterrent relations, and
China is part of that equation as well. Preventing small states like North
Korea, Iran, and Iraq from developing nuclear arsenals through the Nuclear
Non-Proliferation regime has been very difficult and controversial (on again
off again negotiations, sanctions against Iran and North Korea, and an invasion
of Iraq). Add credible ballistic missile defenses, the use of
conventional warheads on ballistic missiles (Prompt Global Strike), and new
hypersonic missiles, and deterrence becomes a dizzying equation. We’ll
hit on all these topics in a chronological manner. We can’t understand where we
are unless we know where we’ve been.
US-Chinese
Relations Are
we witnessing the origins of the next cold war? Some people are absolutely sure
that the US and China are moving toward a relationship similar to the US-Soviet
relationship of the cold war. They look at China's potential, its rapid
economic growth, its huge population, its rapid increases in military spending,
and assume that China will behave as every other rising power has in the past -
its wealth will lead to power and its power will lead to expansion. The
specific disagreements may center on China's human rights record, its actions
in the South China Sea, its one-party Communist state, or its sales of missile
and nuclear weapons technology to states such as Iran or Pakistan, but
underneath it all is a struggle between the current superpower -- the US -- and
a rising challenger -- China. Others feel US-China relations can go in
any direction. The US and China can find common ground in their economic interests
or growing hostility over their differences in ideology or their power rivalry.
The issue of Taiwan, of course, often is the beginning and end of the
discussion. While the US and the USSR fought the cold war with great intensity,
they never had an issue such as Taiwan. The story of Taiwan is long and
complex, but the short version is this. The Chinese Civil war (1946-1949)
was to decide who would run China after Japan lost WW II and withdrew from
China. The Nationalists (US allies and ruling regime) faced off against the
Communists. The Communists won and the Nationalists fled to the island of
Taiwan where they set up a rival government and pledged to regain control of
China someday. The US has protected that government ever since. Taiwan and
China act as if they are two separate countries, but both sides often talk
about reunification eventually. The dilemma is that they are two very different
regimes. Taiwan is a liberal democracy, and an ally of the US and Japan.
China is an authoritarian dictatorship with ambitions to assume a greater role
in managing Asia and the world. To China, Taiwan is like a renegade province
that must be returned to mainland control to fulfill China's ambitions as a
great power and to finally end the humiliation of China's colonial era. It is a
matter of Chinese nationalism and a test of the Communist party's leadership
and legitimacy. Many believe that China will invade Taiwan to recapture it
sometime in the next 25 years. For the US, Taiwan is an ally, a
democracy, a trading partner, and a sort of an aircraft carrier sitting 100
miles off the Chinese coast that might be useful in containing Chinese
ambitions. It can't be abandoned to a dictatorship and it serves as a
test of US reliability and willingness to remain a superpower in East
Asia. US-Chinese relations after the Communists seized power in October
1949 have evolved. In the early part of the Cold War, the US and China
were enemies who even fought directly during the Koran War (1950-1953).
When relations between China and the USSR deteriorated (mid-1950s on), the US
took advantage of that growing Sino-Soviet split to open relations with China
(Nixon’s famous trip to China in 1972). From that point until the end of the
Cold War containing Soviet power in East Asia was what brought the US and China
closer. It was old style balance of power. Once the Cold War ended, US-China
relations were cemented by both nation’s interest in economic growth. In
the 21st century, US-China relations have begun to
deteriorate. Both US political parties have begun to question whether
US-China trade is good or bad for the US. Once trade no longer provides
the glue to the relationship, China’s persecution of Uighurs in Xinjiang, its
crackdown on Hong Kong, its general tightening of restrictions on freedom of
speech and the press become larger issues in US policy. Under Xi Jinping,
China’s president and Communist party leader since 2012, China has moved toward
a more assertive foreign policy. The China Dream calls for a return to
leadership in East Asia and global prominence. We’ll look at Chinese
strategic thinking from the dynastic era to today and consider how Xi Jinping’s
foreign policy in the South China Sea, toward Taiwan, and through the Belt and
Road Initiative will impact East Asia and the global balance of power.
The
Research Paper: Cyber conflict. One of the big debates today in international politics is
whether cyberwar (the use of computers as a key component of an attack) is as
fundamentally game changing as nuclear weapons were after World War II. Will we
talk about the cyber age the same way we talk about the nuclear age? Or
do computers simply give us a new way of waging the same old types of
conflicts? The way we’ll approach this topic is by having you read a
book, and write an analytical book review that will include some research to
back up your analysis. More detailed instructions are in the paper
instructions link below. The short version is this: You’ll read Thomas Rid. Cyberwar
Will Not Take Place (Oxford University Press, 2017). Rid makes a strong and
clear argument. Your job is to agree with him or disagree with him and explain
why.
Learning
Outcomes
Texts
You need
to read them, but you don’t have to buy them. The books are all available
online through the links below and available at the VCU Bookstore. If
anyone has problems getting access to the texts, for any reason, let me know as
soon as possible so you don't get too far behind in the reading. The Course
Schedule below indicates exactly what to read week by week.
Grading
System: Grades
will be determined through the following:
|
June
18-19 This will be a take home quiz.
I will put the maps in the Files folder of Canvas at about 9:00 AM on
Tuesday June 18. The answer sheets are due back to me at midnight on
Wednesday June 19 (as Wednesday June 19 becomes Thursday June 20), but this
is a soft deadline; don’t sweat an extra few hours. |
5%
of the grade |
|
|
Exam
1 |
Friday
July 5 to Monday July 8 This
will be a take home exam. I will place the exam in the Files folder in Canvas
at 9:00 AM July 5. It will be due back to me (emailed) by midnight on July 8
(as July 8 becomes July 9). I’ve given you extra time on this because it is a
holiday weekend. |
30%
of the grade |
|
Paper
Due: Thursday July 23: At Midnight (as July 23 becomes the July 24; a soft
deadline though) Last
day for turning in optional rough drafts is July 16 |
30%
of the grade |
|
|
Exam
2 |
Wednesday
July 31 to Friday August 2: This will be a take home exam. I will place the exam in
the Files folder of Canvas at about 9:00 AM on Wednesday July 31. It will be
due back to me (emailed) by midnight on Friday August 2 (as August 2 becomes
August 3). |
35%
of the grade |
|
|
|
How do you calculate your grade? Use the
percentages from the above table. So, if you received the following grades, you
would calculate your grades in the following manner:
I give
you this very detailed formula for a number of reasons. You should never be
unaware of what your class average is. You can calculate it at any point in the
semester. If your grade is not what you'd like it to be, you should know, and
you should come see me about it. Do not come to me after Exam 2 and say that
you're having trouble in the class. It's too late at that point. But any time
in the semester that you feel you are having trouble, or not doing as well as
you feel you should, come talk to me. During my office hours and by appointment
I am happy to talk to you about the class
Grading
scale: I use a typical scale: A = 90-100; B = 80-89; C = 70-79; D = 55-69.
Borderline grades are considered in the following manner.
Speaking
of grades: The withdrawal date is July 9
You
will be asked to identify a total of 100 different countries, cities, regions,
or bodies of water spread out over seven different maps. These countries,
cities, regions, or bodies of water are listed in the link above. There
is a separate list for each map. I will place seven maps in the Files
folder on Canvas. On those maps, all the countries, cities, regions, or
bodies of water you need to identify will be marked with a letter. Your
job will be to match the letter with the countries, regions, or bodies of
water. Use the lists in the link as your answer sheet. You’ll see a space
to put in the letter. Then save it and email it to me by the deadline.
Please see the instructions about how to name the file.
I will
put the actual maps in the Course Files folder on Tuesday June 18 at about 9:00
AM. Your answers are due at midnight Wednesday June 19 (as June 19
becomes June 20), but that is a soft deadline, so don’t sweat an extra hour or
two. This assignment is super easy, and, of course, it is open
book. Given the in class/online nature of the course, this won’t be
tough. It just forces you to take a little time to look at a map.
Paper
Due: July 23: Emailed to me by midnight (as July 23 becomes July 24), but this
is a soft deadline so, don’t sweat an extra few hours.
I will
review rough drafts, outlines, and even completed papers, if emailed to me by
July 16. This is not required, but an opportunity for you let me review
your paper and get it back to you so you can use my comments to rewrite your
paper.
The
following instructions are important. Please pay attention to them. If
you don't you will wind up hurting your grade:
EXAMS: The exams are take-home
exams. You will have roughly two days to complete each exam. The
exams will be short answer and essay. At least one week before the exam I
will put a review sheet online. It will be linked to the syllabus below
this paragraph. In general, the review sheets should be used as your study
guide for the exam. The review sheet will include some terms that are from the
readings only, so that you can go back and review those items from the
readings. Once you have the review sheet, feel free to ask me questions about
the terms. This is the best way to study for the exam. If you understand the
terms on the review sheet, you can define each one and see how each one relates
to the larger concepts and issues we've discussed in class, you should do just
fine on the exam.
How does
a take home exam work?
Basics
And,
important:
Preliminary
Review Sheets
Use these
to study for exams. They are an outline of everything I will discuss in the
class. These are preliminary. I may make adjustments to them based on
events and any changes I make in the lectures. But they can be used as an
outline of everything we’ll discuss in class, and an outline of key terms from
the readings. If I make any changes to them, I will let you know. Also, any
changes will be made at least a week before the exam except in the case where I
eliminate terms from the review sheet. I might do that after the last lecture
for that section of the class. I’ll let you know if I do.
The
Use of Artificial Intelligence Programs on the Paper and Exams
The
short version: Don’t. You cannot use these programs in an exam. That is
cheating. See the paper instructions for more about the paper and AI.
You’ve
heard all the buzz and you might have used these programs already for different
things. New technology is fun, and it can be used as an excellent tool in lots
of situations. But in a class like this, the rules of plagiarism haven’t
changed just because new technology has arrived: If you didn’t write it and
you say that you did write it, that is plagiarism, a violation of the VCU Honor
Code. For exams, it’s simple. You are supposed to be writing these exams.
Anything other than that is cheating. Also:
COURSE
AND READING SCHEDULE
Note: We’ve got two books by David Shambaugh, so below they will be identified
as Shambaugh, China (for China and the World) and Shambaugh, Where
(for Where Great Powers Meet).
Week
1: June 10-14
Day 1:
Introduction to the Class and Intro to Nuclear Weapons
Day 2:
Strategy and Arms Control in the First Nuclear Age I
Week
2: June 17-21
Map
Quiz:
This will be a
take home quiz. I will put the maps in the Files folder of Canvas at
about 9:00 AM on Tuesday June 18. The answer sheets are due back to me at
midnight on Wednesday June 19 (as Wednesday June 19 becomes Thursday June 20),
but this is a soft deadline, so don’t sweat an extra few hours.
Day 3:
Strategy and Arms Control in the First Nuclear Age II
Day 4:
The Second Nuclear Age I: Russia, China, and Ballistic Missile Defense
Week
3: June 24-28
Day 5:
The Second Nuclear Age II: India and Pakistan
Day 6:
The Second Nuclear Age III: Iran and North Korea
Week
4: July 1-5
Day 7:
The Second Nuclear Age IV: New Threats and New Weapons
Day 8:
July 4th is a Thursday, so…
Exam
1: July 5 to 8 (This
will be a take home exam. I will place the exam in the Files folder in Canvas
at 9:00 AM on July 5. It will be due back to me (emailed) by midnight PM on
July 8 (as July 8 becomes July 9). This is a soft deadline, so don’t
sweat some extra hours. I’ve given you extra time on this because it’s a
holiday weekend.
Withdrawal
Date: July 9
Week
5: July 10-14
Day 9: Hegemony
and Great Power Conflict: Western and Chinese Views
Day 10:
Cold War US and Chinese Foreign Policy
Week
6: July 15-19
Last
day for turning in optional rough drafts: July 16
Day 11:
Post-Cold War US-China Relations One
Day 12:
Post-Cold War US-China Relations Two
Week
7: July 22-26
Paper
Due: Tuesday July 23: At Midnight (as July 23 becomes July 24; a soft deadline
though)
Day 13:
US-China Trade
Day 14:
The South China Sea
Week
8: July 29- August 1
Day 15:
Finishing Up
Exam
2: July 31 to August to 2: This will be a take home exam. I will place the exam in
Canvas in the Files folder at about 9:00 AM on July 31. It will be due back to
me (emailed) by midnight on August 2 (as August 2 becomes August 3), but this
is a soft deadline.
Other
Important Stuff
Political
Science Advising
If you
are a Political Science major, we highly recommend that you meet with your
friendly and helpful POLI advisors, Nathan Bickett and Jen Clayton, at least
once a semester to make sure you are on track - doing what you need to do and
not doing what you don’t need to do - and to discuss your academic and
professional goals. Current minors and those considering a POLI major or minor
are also encouraged to visit.
You may
make an appointment through the Navigator app or through a link on your VCU
Portal. You may also reach us at poliadvisor@vcu.edu
Political
Science Librarian
Nia
Rodgers is the librarian for Political Science. She can help you find
peer-reviewed materials to use in your research. She can be reached at: slrodgers@vcu.edu or you can make an
appointment at: https://vcu.libcal.com/appointment/8778
Where
can you find information on international affairs?
This is
the questions students always ask me: “Where do I find good information on
international affairs. I’m looking for something unbiased and something that
doesn’t always look at the world through American eyes (as in how do these
developments affect the US).
Here’s
the short answer: For day-by-day coverage of events in the world:
BBC
News: http://news.bbc.co.uk/. On
a day-by-day basis, no other news organization covers the world as well.
It has separate pages for most regions, links to past stories, links to data
bases, all kinds of information that will get you up to speed on anything.
On a
weekly basis:
The Economist:
www.economist.com. This is a
Britain-based weekly which covers world politics and world business.
There really is nothing else like it in the comprehensive nature of its
coverage. You can also buy it on the newsstand, but the web is
free. It covers world politics very well.
Long
Term Views of Crisis and Conflict:
International
Crisis Group: www.crisisweb.org.
This is the International Crisis Group, a non-profit organization that studies,
analyzes, and makes recommendations about how to resolve various crises in the
world. There is nothing better for the in-depth examination of current
world events and the dilemmas of problem solving and peace making. It has
reports (30-50 pages), briefings (10-30), and a weekly briefing (Crisis Watch),
which you can get on the web site or sign up for e-mail delivery.