POLI 369 US National Security

Summer 2019

Bill Newmann

Review for Reading

The first part of this review is actually the Review Sheet for the first lectures on Decision Making. It refers to the Newmann readings as well. Terms with (*) in front of them are from the readings. We’ve discussed many of them in class as well, but there is more information from the readings that I expect you to know about those terms.

The second part of this will consist of a guide to the readings, lists of terms for things you should pay special attention to when you read.

National Security Decision Making Structure

Pre-1947 Organization

Dept. of State

Dept. of War

Dept. of Navy

The problem of coordination

Pearl Harbor and intelligence coordination problem

What was created by the National Security Act of 1947 (and what had already existed)

Cabinet-style government

Career vs. appointee

State Department role

NS Act of 1947 Changes

1. DoD

· Civilian control (and why do this?)

· Chain of Command

· Combatant Commanders

· Sec. of Defense and Office of the Secretary of Defense

· Dept. of Navy, Army, AF

· The DoD bureaucracy

· Chain of Command

2. Creation of US Air Force

3. Joint Chiefs of Staff

Service Rivalry (inter-service rivalry)

“Joint” advice: what does “Joint” mean?

Joint Staff

Changes made in 1986 Goldwater-Nichols Act

New role of Chair JCS

Why the Goldwater-Nichols Act was passed?

4. CIA

Intelligence failures 1998-2003

New DNI role

Congressional Oversight

Models of Decision Making

1. Analytical Model (Rational Actor; Rational Choice)

· Cost-benefit analysis

2. *Organizational Process Model

· standard operating procedure

· rivalries between organizations

3. *Bureaucratic Politics Model

· rivalries between officials

· bargaining/compromise

4. Presidential Management Model

· managing the process

Interagency Process

The importance of the interagency process

*National Security Council

*Created by National Security Act of 1947

*statutory members and advisors

*Evolution of the NSC Staff

*Premises of presidential management of the national security process

*Models of Presidential Management

1. *Standard Model (its characteristics are described in the Newmann book, but it is not called the standard model)

*Principals Committee

*Deputies Committee

*Assistant Secretary Level (Policy Coordination Committees or Interagency Policy Committees)

*Interagency process paper flow

2. Nixon-Kissinger Style process

*centralization

*role of National Security Adviser

Why centralize?

3. *Crash and Burn: Standard Process with management problems and what we learn from this about the President’s role

*Feuding in Carter administration (who were the main antagonists?)

*Feuding in Reagan administration (who were the main antagonists?)

Trump disarray

4. *Standard Model with Strong Management: GHW Bush (Bush 41)

*Formal process and informal processes

*Gang of Eight

*Breakfast group

*DC role as an insulation

*The Evolution Model

*How decision making changes

*Three Structures

*Formal structure

*Informal Structure

*Confidence Structure

*Why these structures evolve

*The importance of the President he wants from the decision process

Trump NSPM 4

Just read this and get a sense of the NSC, the PC, and DC and what officials are on it.

National Security Strategy of the US, December 2017

America First National Security Policy

“Principled Realism”

Based on the interests of the US people

Competitors

Regional Threats

Transnational Threats

US belief after the Cold War that engagement could tame bad actors – false

Need for US military superiority

Four Pillars (You should able to define each in a few sentences)

1. Protect the Homeland

2. Promote American Prosperity

3. Peace through Strength

4. Advance American Interests

National Defense Strategy 2018

Goals:

· to deter

· if deterrence fails, to fight

· to negotiate from a position of strength

Growing threats

Revisionist Powers (China and Russia)

Weakening of US post-WW II order

Rogue states (Iran, North Korea)

Non-state actors

Primary objective: strategic competition with China and Russia

Nuclear Posture Review. 2018

Growing threat (deterioration of strategic environment)

Growing complexity of threat

Growing complexity of deterrence strategies

Why we have nuclear weapons (should be able to say a few things about each)

· deterrence

· assurance for allies

o extended deterrence

· achieve objectives

· hedging (I’ll explain this; I didn’t think this was explained well)

NC3

Triad

Modernization of Triad

Contemporary Threats

· China

· Russia

· Iran

· North Korea (DPRK)

Missile Defense Review, 2019

Growing threats

Roles of Missile Defense

· protection

· deterrence

· assurance

Defense of US deployments and allies

Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD)

Ground-Based Interceptors (GBI)

THAAD

Heginbotham et al. China’s Evolving Nuclear Deterrent

China modernizing its nuclear weapons

Doctrine

No-first use

Limited deterrent (existential deterrence)

Assured retaliation (assured destruction)

Force Structure: Not a Triad

Land-based missiles

Submarine-based missiles

Can’t predict what China will do, but can understand the factors influencing or “driving” China’s modernization

External drivers

US threat

View of US missile defense

Nested threats (nested security dilemmas)

India

Japan

North Korea

Internal Drivers

Elevation of 2nd Artillery to PLA Rocket Force (equal to Army, Navy, and Air Force)

Bureaucratic (rivalry) and organizational issues (SOPs)

No real resource constraints

China spends about 2-2.5% of GDP on defense