POLI/INTL 361, Review 2, Summer 2024
Bill Newmann
This will be a take home
exam.
Basic Requirements
The exam has two
parts:
And, important:
List of Terms:
(Terms with an (*) are discussed in the
readings)
US-China Relations and International
Relations Theory
Theories of Great
Power Relations
Rise and Fall of Great Powers
Hegemony
Basic Premise
US is declining hegemon?
China is rising challenger?
Western Ideas
1. Neorealism
Anarchy
Self-help
States seek power
Security dilemma
Rivalry
Balance of power = peace
Imbalance of power = war
Balancing or Bandwagoning in Asia
But liberalism? Do values matter?
If so, how does that impact balancing and bandwagoning?
2. Power Transition (Hegemonic
Realism)
Leadership = stability
international system
needs leadership, needs rules
Imbalance of power = peace
Balance of power = war
Long Cycle Theory: 100-year cycle of leadership
“Thucydides Trap”
Hegemon fears
challenger’s rise; may preemptively go to war
Hegemonic Stability Theory
Values, ideas, the system
Liberal democracy vs. authoritarian state capitalism
“Rules-based international order”
3. Neo-classical Realism
how it differs from neorealism: the
nature of the state matters
all states don’t behave
the same way (opposite of neorealist assumption)
ideology, domestic system matter
Choice in foreign policy
interdependence, ideology,
nationalism, leadership
Chinese Ideas on Great Powers and
Leadership
1.
Realism and the balance of power
Mao’s thinking in late 1960s, early 1970s
using the US to balance against rising Soviet power in Asia
2.
Order-Chaos Cycle
the pattern of dynasties rising and falling
why do dynasties rise and fall?
importance of quality of leadership
quality of leadership and stability of dynasty
(challenges, war, collapse)
neo-classical realism?
3.
Hegemony and Stability in Confucianism
Harmony
Humane Authority: the
quality of your ideas
Leader earns legitimacy
nation that wants to lead the international system needs legitimacy;
needs to earn leadership
Confucian Spin on hegemonic
stability theory
hegemony vs. legitimacy
it’s not power than matters;
it’s ideas
But China tribute system:
power or legitimacy?
Chinese dynasties led East
Asian because the emperor earned his legitimacy?
4.
Strategy
Sage King, hegemon, tyrant
relationship to interstate order
It’s about strategic choice
-- strategy
*Qin Dynasty and Warring states era: Qin strategy allowed it to conquer
other states; *unite China
But tyranny caused its downfall
Han Dynasty and successors learned the lesson
Rome fell; China didn’t
New Cold War
US-USSR vs.
US-China
1. Capitalist completion,
unlike the Cold War
capitalism, interdependence, and mutually assured bankruptcy
2. Direct maritime disputes
Freedom of Navigation (US) vs. South
China Sea Nine Dash Line (China)
3. Democracy vs. dictatorship
4. Global vs. regional Power
5. Nuclear Deterrence
Advantages/Disadvantages
US advantage –
alliances
US advantage –
military
China advantage –
expanding presence, while US moves inward
US advantage –
political system and soft power
China advantage –
US polarization
Does China need to
be the dominant power in East Asia before it becomes a global power?
How much is US
willing to do to maintain its central role in the Indo-Pacific?
History of US-China Relations
1. Pre-WW II
China
Chinese Dynasties
since 2205 BC
Qin Dynasty 221-206
BC as the “first” unified China
*Chinese tribute
system during dynastic period
*Chinese
civilization vs. barbarians
*Emperor as “Son of
Heaven”
Size of China
during Han Dynasty
Wealth of China
during dynastic period
China conquered by
Mongos 1279-1368 (Yuan Dynasty)
Ming regains
Chinese control (1368) and old tribute system
Admiral Zheng He’s
voyages and China’s isolation
British colonialism
and Opium Wars
*Colonial powers in
China
*“100 Years of
Humiliation”
*The importance of
regaining past glory in Chinese foreign policy
*Core theme in Xi Jinping’s Chinese
Dream
Japanese Threat:
1890s to 1940s
US
US policy: free
trade
US Open Door Policy
for China
China
Qing Dynasty falls
1911: Birth of Republic of China
Nationalists and
Sun Yatsen
Warlord Period
Japanese invasion
US vs. Japan over
the future of China
US wants open door
Japan wants to conquer China
Pearl Harbor and WW II
2. WW II
Big Four Powers
Japan loses; leaves
China
Chinese Civil War
Nationalists (Chiang Kaishek
vs.
Communists (Mao Zedong)
Communist Victory
Two China’s?
PRC vs. ROC
Both agree on
eventual reunification
Both accept force
as method of reunification (1950s and 1960s)
PRC still accepts
force as a method of reunification
Modern Taiwan (ROC)
divided about reunification with China
3. *Cold War: Isolation
Bipolarity in Asia
*US recognizes
Taiwan as China; no recognition of PRC
Soviet Union
recognizes PRC as China
PRC: brutal
communist dictatorship under Mao
ROC/Taiwan:
capitalist dictatorship under Chiang Kaishek
Korean War
US vs. China
*US-ROC Mutual
Defense Treaty 1954
US will defend Taiwan
*China wants to
spread global communist revolution
*Chinese Five
Principles of Peaceful Coexistence
*Non-aligned movement
US wants to contain
communism and Soviet/Chinese power
4. Cold War: Engagement
Sino-Soviet Split
US, Domino Theory,
and Vietnam War
US sees Vietnam war as a fight
against Chinese expansionism (poor analysis)
Change in US
Thinking: Triangular Diplomacy (Nixon)
Balance of power thinking
Use Sino-Soviet split to drive a
wedge between USSR and PRC
*Chinese Thinking:
Balance of Power (Zhou Enlai)
*Use US to balance against growing
USSR threat
Kissinger and Nixon
to China 1971/72
Shanghai Communique
(joint Communique no. 1) and its key elements
Agree to Disagree but name each element
One China and Taiwan is part of that
US to remove troops from Taiwan
Anti-hegemony
Mao and Zhou deaths
Politics in Three
Capitals 1970s
Official
Recognition 1979 (joint communique no. 2)
One China and Taiwan is part of that
Anti-hegemony
Taiwan Relations
Act 1979
US Arms Sales to Taiwan
Establishment of non-embassy embassies
US-PRC joint
communique no. 3 (1982)
One China and Taiwan is part of that
Disagreement about arms sales
US Six Assurances
July 1982
And arms sales
Politics in Three
Capitals 1980s
US “strategic
ambiguity” 1970s to today
Big Changes Since 1970s
1.
Chinese Economic reform
The goal of Chinese
economic reform
Integration with
the world for the first time since Ming Dynasty (16th century)
*Amazing success of
economic reform
Deng’s Policies
priority on economic modernization
*Low profile/bide time
Special economic
zones and integrating into the world economy
*Rapid Chinese
growth
*The economic boom
in China
*Export-led growth
Defense spending
increases
China and US as
trading partners
2.
Taiwan Democratization
Chiang Kaishek
Lifting of martial
law 1987
Lee Teng-hui and
the transition to democracy
KMT vs. DPP on
relations with China
People of Taiwan
establishing an identity: Taiwanese, not Chinese
Challenging idea of
reunification
Taiwan trade with
China
interdependence of economies
1996 first direct
presidential election and Chinese coercion
*1992 Consensus
*One China, with interpretations
*Taiwan challenges to the idea
*Tsai Ing-wen
Chinese response to
Pelosi visit Summer 2022
3. US Response 1980s-1990s
China as…
balancer
economic opportunity
dictatorship
threat to Taiwan
Tiananmen Square
Bush View: Balance
of power (Triangular Diplomacy still)
Congress: use MFN
to punish China for human rights violations
Congress vs. Bush
Three groups
debating
business interests
human rights lobbies
Realists
Clinton’s choice
Debate in the US:
what is China?
economic opportunity
dictatorship
great power rival
US and China Foreign Policies in the 1990s
For the US: what is China (range of
opinion)
For China: what is the US (range of
opinion)
Deng Xiaoping’s policies
*Low
profile/bide time
Clinton’s policies
human
rights, but economic priority
Big
Emerging Markets
*Hu Jintao’s peaceful rise
*vs.
China Threat Theory
George W. Bush: Two Views
1.
Strategic competitor
2.
*Robert Zoellick’s “responsible stakeholder”
2008: Chinese view of the meaning
of the Great Recession and decline of the West
*Xi Jinping’s Chinese Dream
*End
of low profile
*China
returning to its proper Asian and global role
*Belt and Road Initiative
*as
China’s way of preventing maritime encirclement
*as
a way of gaining leverage over other nations
*as
a move toward global leadership
*as
competition with the US
World Class Military by 2049
Anti-western ideology
Confucianism and a new rival
ideology
Authoritarian
state capitalism
*Xi’s consolidation of power
State Capitalism and SOEs
*Nationalism and Chinese public
(Gries chapter in Shambaugh book)
*Current
Chinese foreign policy in the context of Chinese history
Obama Response
TPP
*Rules-based international
order
*The Pivot
Balance of power and
US-Indian relations
*The Quad
*Is China trying to reinforce the
rule-based international order or change it? (Morton in Shambaugh)
US-China Trade
Similar to
English-German rivalry?
Hegemon vs. Challenger?
Zero Sum Game or
Complex Game
Key issues
1.
Is Chinese wealth a threat to the US?
2.
US Liberal world order post WW II vs. Nationalism
FDR to Obama
Nationalist Trend
Does China want to change
the rules?
Trump changing the rules
3.
*State Capitalism as a rival model
*SOEs
*And debt
4.
*US Trade Deficit and Trump Tariffs
decline in US manufacturing
Trump: China’s fault
Or maturity of US economy
and shift to services
Growth in US exports to
China
Manufacturing and industrial
robots (technology)
*US-China trade: largest economic
relationship in the world
What if US and China blame each
other for their economic problems?
*Trump policy: China is the threat
*US-China Tariff duel 2018 –
Biden: back to Obama policy on
trade?
*China’s trade leverage over every
nation in Asia (Yahuda in Shambaugh)
Biden Trade Policy (Sullivan Speech
April 2023)
South China Sea
*Paracel and Spratly Islands
*Nations involved in the disputes
*Competing claims
*Vietnam vs. China 1975
*China’s Nine Dash Line
*oil and natural gas
*Debate over how much oil
*Trade through S. China Sea
*Strait of Malacca as key
chokepoint
*Establishing sovereignty?
*1970s to today – Nations begin to
occupy islands
*2009 China assertiveness in S.
China Sea
*China building islands and
military bases
*China using nationalism to gain
public support for actions in South China Sea
*UNCLOS
*12-mile territorial sea
*200-mile Exclusive Economic Zone
*Philippines Case at Permanent
Court of Arbitration
Court Ruling on Nine Dash Line
*A path to resolution
*The ASEAN Way (three elements)
*Code of Conduct for S. China Sea:
ASEAN and China
*Debate continues on key issues
*China allies delay the debate
*Cambodia
*How China benefits from delay
“New Status Quo” or “Facts
on the Ground”
Chinese Coast Guard Law 2021
*UNCLOS and innocent passage
through territorial sea
*China requires permission for
crossing into territorial waters
*Contradicts
UNCLOS
China expanded definition of its
territorial waters (Nine Dash line)
*US FONOPs
*“innocent passage”
*“excessive maritime claims”
China and Russian Invasion of Ukraine
Joint Statement February 2022
Declaration of independence from US-led
rules-based international order?
Declaration of independence from US
hegemony?
Key Highlights
Multipolarity
Cultural
diversity/civilizational defined
Democracy
is defined by civilization
Certain
states impose their values on others
Non-interference
in internal affairs
Alliances
are divisive
Russia-China
friendship with no limits
Russia
believes Taiwan is part of China
Then Russian Invasion three weeks
later
Global Civilization Initiative
Why would China support Russian
invasion of Ukraine?
US Response to invasion
Asian Response
Japanese response
The Quad
AUKUS
US-Japan-Philippine Agreement
US-South Korea Agreement
US-India Agreement
Why is defense of Ukraine so
important?
First
test of Chinese-Russian new rules?
Authoritarianism
vs. Liberal democracy?
Dry run to invasion of
Taiwan?