POLI 369 US National Security

Summer 2019

Review 2

You will have two hours and 30 minutes to complete the exam. You will not need it. This is written to be taken in an hour and 30 minutes

List of Terms

The issue: what comes first? Technology or Strategy?

Eras (Only post-1954 matters)

The Computer Revolution as a part of the timeline of civilization

Total war in US strategy

Seapower in US strategy

Traditional view of airpower

Douhet’s theory of airpower

General Billy Mitchell’s fight for airpower

Strategic Bombing

Hiroshima and Nagasaki: Atomic Bombs

Is Strategy over: Yes and no

Post-1945: US Objectives

Dilemma of the nuclear age: can’t fight USSR directly

The goal then: Power Projection

Three Big Challenges

Limited War

in Korea

in Vietnam: counterinsurgency

Creating and Stabilizing Allies

Alliances/Stable world order

The problem of terrorist sanctuaries/Failed states

Post-2001 Stability Operations (See Taw Below)

The range of tasks (just the general idea)

in Afghanistan and Iraq

Leveraging New Technology

The pace of technological change

US Strategy

First Offset Strategy

Second Offset Strategy

Third Offset Strategy

Problem and Solution

PGMs

Thanh Hoa Bridge

RMA

Lifting the Fog of War?

Information dominance

Gulf War

What the Chinese learned from 1990/91 Gulf War

The Chinese response?

Cyberwar (See Sanger reading list below)

Premises

*Cyberspace as a realm of warfare

*Critical infrastructure

*Communications and information

Vulnerability of it all

The Threats

*Espionage

*Russia

*China

*North Korea

DDOS

*Malware

*worm

*ransomware

*Zero-Day Exploit

*Real physical damage

*Olympic Games/Stuxnet

*setting a precedent

*Hybrid Warfare

*Ukraine 2014

*Gerasimov Doctrine

*Cyber Command

US and Russian power grids and deterrence

Stuxnet as compellence

*2016 Election and US response (see Sanger reading list)

Robots

Commonplace in the future

Assisting the military

Drones

Swarming

Autonomous robots/ AI

Hypersonic Glide Vehicles

What makes them different?

Increasing vulnerability (Cyberwar to HGV)

Scenarios

The Future

1. Big Power Rivalry

*US and China Bipolarity

*South China Sea

Nine-Dash Line

UNCLOS (what it is in general; you don’t need to know everything on the slide; that’s for reference)

2. Interdependence

*Will China change rules that enabled it to get rich

3. *Multipolarity

*US hegemony will end

4. *Leadership not hegemony

*Institutional leadership

*Rules

5. *Ideological leadership?

Liberal Democracy vs.

Theocracy

*Soft Authoritarianism

6. Domestic Problems in the US and the end of hegemony

Polarization

*Education

Deficit and Debt

Can the US afford to maintain its defense expenditure?

US federal spending: how much on defense and how much on other things

7. *Fundamental Changes

A. Transformation of the Nation-State System

1. *Urbanization and Inequality

1. *megacities

2. *People Power or State Breakdown

1. *Arab Uprising

3. *Disturbance Democracy

4. Non-state actors

1. Organizations vs. nation states (examples)

2. ISIS global reach

3. Transnational organized crime

B. *Inward Focus

C. Infectious Disease

D. Climate Change

Taw

The Taw reading is there to get you another example of how government works. Don’t sweat the details here or worry too much about how dense and sometimes repetitive it is. Skim a lot when you feel like it is not telling you much. Here are the terms you should know though

*Definition of Stability Operations

*US military as local government, police, utilities

*Afghanistan and Iraq: discovery that the US did not have the capability for stability operations

*COIN

*Revolution in Military Affairs

*Stability operations vs. traditional military mission

*Full-spectrum operations

Sanger

*Connectivity of everything to the internet

*No debate on the use of cyber war/espionage

*Gerasimov Doctrine

*Attribution problem

*Olympic Games/Stuxnet

*data in transit vs. data at rest

*Cyber Command

*Edward Snowden

*NSA Tailored Access Operations unit

*Unit 61398 of Chinese PLA

*China hacks for economic gain

*Russia actions against Ukraine 2014

*US lack of response to North Korea and Russian attacks

*DNC hack (Podesta computer)

*Russia’s Internet Research Agency and 2016 election

*Wikileaks and Guccifer 2.0

*Trump response

*Spring 2016 North Korean missile tests: “left of launch” program

*Global Trends 2035

*Key Trends

*Populations trends

*Rich are aging

*Poor are young

*South Asian and African youth

*Shift in Global Economy

*Extreme poverty in decline

*Western middle class under stress

*Gap between rich and poor

*Backlash against globalization

*Populism/nationalism

*Technology

*Acceleration and discontinuity

*Winners and losers

*The impact of automation and AI

*Ideas and Identity

*Globalization leads to populism

*Leaders exploiting appeals to identity

*Internet makes exclusion and separation easier

*Governing is more difficult

*People demand more; Democracy must produce

*Complexity of issues

*Veto players

*Change in the nature of conflict

*Non-state actors

*Blur between peace and war

*WMD

*Climate change, environment, health

*Near term

*More assertive Russia and China

*Three Scenarios

1. *Islands

2. *Orbits

3. *Communities

*The importance of building resilience

*Mass migration

*Gender Imbalance

*Geopolitics becoming more ideological

*Non-state actor power