Review Sheet 2: POLI/INTL 363 Spring 2024

Bill Newmann

 

This looks big, but don't worry.  If you have come to class, or viewed the lectures, and done all the reading, nothing here should be new to you.

            Also, though there are a lot of terms, obviously, not each one of them is the subject of an essay. These terms, in order, are an outline of everything we've done so far. A group of them might be the subject of an essay, or maybe a comparison between one president's foreign policy and another. Usually, you can't explain a single term without referring to the terms next to it. So, really, if you can say one or two things about each term and how it relates to the terms around it and fits into the larger scheme of US foreign policy you're doing fine. Some terms, however, are filled with enough significance to be short answers/identifications on the test, but you'll be able to figure out which ones.

 

Remember that you have the PPT slides. They are a version of this review sheet.

Terms with (*) in front of them may not have been included in the lectures, but were discussed, at length, in the readings.

 

The exam will consist of two sections:

·         Short answers: Choose 2 of 8-10.  I will choose 8-10 terms from this review sheet and you will choose 2 of those to answer.  I’m looking for 5-6 sentences that define the term and tell me why it is important in the context of US Foreign Policy.

·         The exam is written to be taken in a regular class period of one hour and 15 minutes. But since we have the room for long time, you will have one hour two hours and 50 minutes for the exam.

 

 

 

List of Term

Bush 41 and Clinton

*Bush 41 through Obama as retrenchment or maximalist presidents

What Replaces the Truman Doctrine?

 

Bush 41

Bush's Realism

Bush dilemma

Bush Foreign Policy:

            Realism with idealist rhetoric?

            Or a switch to idealism for the post-cold war world?

*The Gulf War:

*Iraq vs Kuwait

*Saddam Hussein

*Iraqi invasion of Kuwait

*Defending Saudi Arabia

*The “New World Order”

            The United Nations

            *Multilateral coalition

            *fighting aggression

            *upholding international law

            *Saddam Hussein as worse than Hitler (GHW Bush)

*Iraq surrenders and the terms of its surrender

            Must give up WMD

            Inspections

New World Order? Bush Idealism? Or something else?

Other factors to consider:

            1. Economic: OIL

            2. Multilateralism?

                        Armed Forces participating

            3. Realism:

                        *Why leave Saddam Hussein in power

*The breakup of Iraq?

                        *Iranian power

Somalia

Civil war and drought

Humanitarian Military Intervention      

 

Clinton

*Clinton’s Idealism

Replacing the Truman Doctrine?

Clinton’s huge shift in focus of US foreign policy

Lack of Foreign Policy Consensus

 

The Clinton Doctrine?

Clinton’s idealism

From Containment to Enlargement/Engagement: “En-En Strategy”

Liberal Democratic Order

1.    *Core Group of Liberal-Democracies

2.    *Transitional states/Economic transition: Former Soviet-bloc states

3.    Multilateralism

Challengers to the Rules

4.    Human Rights

5.    Rogue states

6.    Weapons of Mass Destruction proliferation

Economic Opportunities

7.    Big Emerging Markets

8.    Humanitarian Crises

 

Two Legacies

1. Economic Policy: Embracing Globalization

Economics as priority

            Liberal economics vs. nationalists/protectionist economics

            Fighting the Democratic Party on trade issues

Building world order, but through economics

                        NAFTA, FTAA, APEC, WTO

JOBS

 

2.    Peace Operations

Clinton and Somalia

*Clinton support for humanitarian military intervention/peace operations

*UN/US vs. General Aidid (leader of Somali faction that challenged the UN and US)

*Outcome of October 3, 1993: Battle of Mogadishu

*Public Opinion after Somalia

Rwanda 1994

            Viet Nam Syndrome and Somalia failures lead to inaction by Clinton administration

*Bosnia           

ethnic cleansing

Kosovo 1999

The model:

            US airpower

            Local ground troops

            NATO, not UN-sponsored operations

            NATO peacekeepers; US troops on the ground for peacekeeping

 

Bush 43

Initial Policy

            China as strategic competitor

            Hegemonic Realism

            No peace operations or nation-building

            Neoconservatives

 

The New Threat of AQ and Islamic Radicalism

*September 11

*Who was responsible?

*Al-Qaeda (AQ)

*Osama bin-Laden

Bin-Laden’s fatwas (declaration of war against the US)

*The elements of AQ’s ideology

Origins of al-Qaeda and Sunni Extremism (The Big Chart; know just the parts below))

AQ’s roots in Afghanistan in the 1980s

                        Taliban in Afghanistan

            Religious schools around the Muslim world (madrassas) and their ideology

Why this is not mainstream Islam and is more dangerous to Muslims than anyone else

*AQ’s goals (why attack the US)

*Attack on Trade Centers in 2003

 

Bush Doctrine

Going to “War”

Authorization to Use Military Force (but no formal war declaration)

1. *Choosing sides

            *Afghanistan invasion and the difficulties

            Northern Alliance

            *Fighting the Taliban in 2001 and until 2021

2. *Preemption if necessary (really preventive war)

3. *Linkage of terrorism and WMD threat

            *Axis of Evil

4.*Regime Change      

6. *Spreading Democracy: Bush as an Idealist

*Bush’s “Freedom Agenda”

 

The Iraq War

1. Bush administration’s argument for invading Iraq

            *Saddam Hussein will use WMD on the US

            *Iraq will give WMD to terrorists

After the war begins US finds Iraq had no WMD

2. To plant the seed of democracy

*Bush administration ambitious plan to transform the Middle East (“Freedom Agenda”)

*Iraq becomes democracy, then Domino Theory

Bush declares Victory: May 1, 2003

Outcome of the war

1.       *Insurgency

2.       *al-Qaeda in Iraq born

3.       *Sectarian conflict: Sunni vs. Shi’ite vs. Kurds

4.       *US bogged down in a war until 2011

5.       Tipping the balance of power in the region in favor of Iran

6.       US public opinion turns against the war

7.       International opinion turns against the US

8.       *Iraqi efforts to build a democracy

*US Counterinsurgency policy

*The surge 2007

*Awakening Councils

 

From Simon

*Pottery Barn Rule (Colin Powell)

*Curveball and US intelligence

*Bremer does three things

 

 

US and China (from lectures and Economy)

Threat or Opportunity or both?

What is Taiwan?

            *In the eyes of Taiwan

*In the eyes of China

*In the eyes of the US

 

*Taiwan’s move to democracy

*How it complicated US policy

*Taiwan independence and President Tsai Ing-wen

 

*Deng Xiaoping’s reforms 1978

*The economic boom in China

*BRICs

*Chinese wealth and Chinese power

*No deep political reform

*What comparative politics tells us: economic reforms leads to calls for political reform

*Tiananmen Square

*Bush policy after Tiananmen Square: How Bush viewed China: Realism

Congressional pressure and Most Favored Nation policy

Clinton campaign policy: Idealism

            *China as human rights problem

            *China as BEM

Clinton administration arguments and outcome

Clinton sets deadline for China

Clinton decides not to link Chinese progress in human rights to trade with the US

Hypocrisy or Learning?

Clinton’s argument: trade sanctions will not change China, but trade might change China

 

Big Picture

Hegemonic Rival? Thucydides Trap?

Huge economic opportunity?

 

Clinton: Engagement

GW Bush: strategic competitor

            *Responsible Stakeholder” thesis

Obama: Manage China’s rise by setting rules (like Zoellick’s responsible stakeholder)

Trans-Pacific Partnership

 

China as a peer competitor?

*China’s wealth

            *Belt and Road Initiative

            *State Capitalism Model

                        Beijing Consensus

            *Authoritarian Capitalism as a rival model

Chinese Grand Strategy

Deng: Bide Time; low profile

*Xi: “Chinese Dream of the Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation”

            *Returning China to its rightful place

*Challenge the Rules-based international order (the rules since the end of WW II)

*Challenge the US-led international system

*anti-alliances

*anti-universal values

*Wolf-warrior diplomacy

*Backlash against China

China-Russia Joint Statement of February 2022: New Rules for the International System

(see slides in Trump-Biden Two PPT)

*Use of economic power to convince other nations to do what China wants

            *Against South Korea

*Soft power and Confucius Institutes

*China’s hopes for basing rights and becoming a Maritime power

Regional Military Competitor

            *Nine Dash Line

            Chinese base construction in the South China Sea

*String of Pearls

*The end of Hong Kong democracy hopes

*Xi Jinping’s hopes for reunification and control (Hong Kong, Taiwan)

*Punishing Taiwan for Tsai Ing-wen’s lean toward Taiwan independence

Economic Interdependence: Does that prevent war?

 

Obama Foreign Policy

*Obama as retrenching

*US primacy and Rule-based international order (Brands)

1.       *Two US counterinsurgency wars

*Leaving Iraq

*Getting deeper into Afghanistan

*Obama’s belief Afghanistan was always the real front against AQAM

*increasing troop levels

2.       Global war against radical Islam

Use of Drones

*al-Awlaki and AQAP

*Killing bin-Laden

 

3.       Arab Uprising

(You only need to know that this was happening and that the US had to balance out many interests)

*Syrian Civil War

*Policy of non-intervention

The rise of ISIS

*Will democracies in the Middle East be US allies? (Simon)

 

4.       *The Pivot or Rebalancing (See China lecture for some of this)

Balance of power: US and India

*The Pivot/Rebalancing

Trans-Pacific Partnership: setting rules for trade in East Asia: US rules

 

Trump Foreign Policy

The Fact Problem

Trump Doctrine? America First

*Rejection of rules-based international order and US leadership

Rejection of US commitments to international institutions

Rejection of long-term commitments and restraint on US actions

*Alliances are obsolete

*Free trade hurts the US

*Transactional: Bilateral deals with allies, rivals, enemies

 

Tradition vs Trump

1.    *US Leadership vs. America First

*Obama and Biden: building, defending, and leading the rules-based international order

*Trump rejecting the rules

*Trump as “Jacksonian” foreign policy (Brands)

*rejection of internationalism (Brands)

*Fortress America (Brands)

2.    *Free Trade vs. Nationalism/Protectionism

            *Rejection of NAFTA, but eventually just a tweak to NAFTA

            *Rejection of TPP; US withdraws

            *Rejection of Post-WW II Liberalism

*Manufacturing in the US: Technology or foreign competition (Brands)

Biden has not lifted tariffs on China

Sullivan speech and new Biden trade policy

3.    *Tradition: China as security rival and economic opportunity

Trump: China as economic rival

            *China and US manufacturing decline

            *Or is technology the real problem in US manufacturing

            *Trade deficit and Trump tariffs on China

Biden: China as a Great Power Rival

            Biden: US will defend Taiwan

4.       *Tradition: Alliances

Paying the US for Defense

*NATO as obsolete

Biden: Rebuilding alliances

5.    *Russia as Rival vs. Russia as Friend

Tradition: Cold War rivalry with Russia

Post-Cold War attempts to make Russia a friend

Trump: Putin is an ally

Putin’s authoritarianism at home

Elements of Putin Foreign Policy

       Return to Great Power Status

       Reclaim Sphere of Influence

       Near Abroad

       Weaken NATO

       Undermine Liberal Democracy

NATO Expansion

Hybrid Warfare

Independent Ukraine

2013-2014 Ukraine Crisis; fall of Russia-leaning government 2014

Russian Response: Seizure of Crimea

Separatist Control of parts of Eastern Ukraine

February 2022 Invasion

Reasons why Russia invaded (still a debate)

Biden response

European and Asian response

The argument made by Zelensky: This is why Ukraine is important

China Russia Joint Statement February 2022

Key Highlights

·         multipolarity

·         cultural/civilizational diversity in democracy

·         certain states that act unilaterally

·         alliances are bad

·         No limits to China-Russian friendship

·         There is one China and Taiwan is a part of it

Is this China’s bid to become the world’s leader and change the rules the US has established since the end of WW II?

 

*Trump and JCPOA

*Abraham Accords

 

Biden National Security and Defense Strategy

*The rules-based international order

*US role

*Challenge from authoritarian states (Russia and China)

            *Competing with China

*Constraining Russia

*Importance of alliances

 

From Brands

*Three Myths

*Offshore Balancing strategy