POLI 308 US Presidency

Fall 2022

Review Two

 

Basic Requirements

·         I will place the exam in Files folder of Canvas at about 9:00 AM on Monday, December 12.

·         Due by midnight on Tuesday December 13 (as Tuesday December 13 becomes Wednesday December 14, but that deadline is a soft one; don't sweat a few extra hours; by roughly 6:00 AM on December 14 it will be late). 

·         Type or write the exam. 

·         Either way, email me a file or pdf or even jpeg of the written answers by the deadline

·         11- or 12-point font

·         One-inch margins

·         Double-spaced

·         Please use your name in the name of the file you send me.  I’d be happiest if you named the file like this: Your name Exam 2 POLI 308 (so if it was my exam, it would be Newmann Exam 2 POLI 308)

·         The exam is open notes (so you can use your notes, the book, the review sheet, the recorded lectures, and the PPT slides)

·         I do not expect any outside research on this at all. You don’t need citations of any information; in that respect, treat this like it was in-class exam.

·         Study for this exam as if it was an in-class exam. That way when you get the exam, you don’t need to begin studying or reviewing material. You should be ready, and then use all the notes, PPT, lectures as you need for reference.

·         Each part of the exam has a specific page number target.  You can go over the limit, not a problem, but don’t go too far over the limit. You don’t need to.

·         You have choice of what you want to answer in each part, so read the directions carefully

·         I think two to three hours will be enough time for you to write the exam and do well. You can take more time of course, as much as you need. The point here is that I don't think you need to spend hours and hours.

·         It might be helpful to read the questions, then review your notes, and the review sheet.  Maybe make an outline of the essay. And then start to write.

·         As always, the review sheets should be very helpful. You can use the review sheet while you take the exam. It might be a good organizational tool. 

·         Feel free to email me questions if you have them, but as usual, there are limits to how I can help you.

 

And, important:

 

Nothing to worry about because you’re all ready for this, and you’re all going to do well.

 

 

The exam has two parts:

 

 

This review looks big, but don't worry.  If you have come to class and done all the reading, nothing here should be new to you.  Also, though there are a lot of terms, obviously, not each one of them is the subject of an essay. These terms, in order, form an outline of everything we've done so far. A group of them might be the subject of an essay. Usually, you can't explain a single term without referring to the terms next to it. So, really, if you can say one or two things about each term and how it relates to the terms around it and fits into the larger scheme of nuclear weapons you're doing fine. Some terms, however, are filled with enough significance to be short answers/identifications on the test, but you'll be able to figure out which ones.

 

Terms with (*) in front of them may not have been included in the lectures, but were discussed, at length, in the readings.

 

 

Nixon:

*Electoral Realignment

Democrat’s loss of the South

Impact of 1950s and 1960s changes on New Deal Coalition

            Civil Rights -- successes and failures

            Expansion of federal power -- Civil Rights and Great Society

            Failure in Vietnam

Division in Democratic Party over Civil Rights

            Losing the South

Labor and urban North

LBJ's challengers in the 1968 election

Nixon's coalition

            The Silent Majority/Quiet Americans

            Southern Strategy

George Wallace

The Southern Presidential vote in 1968 and 1972 vs. previous years

 

The Administrative Presidency under Nixon

White House control/management of the government

Domestic Council

            John Ehrlichman

National Security Council staff

            Henry Kissinger

*Chief of Staff H. R. Haldeman

*“Berlin Wall”

*Haldeman as gatekeeper: the bad cop

*Nixon difficulty in dealing with conflict; did not want to meet face-to-face with cabinet

*On not doing what the president tells you to do, sometimes…

 

Problems with the Administrative Presidency

            *Cabinet Government?

            *Isolation

                        Line vs. Staff

                        Their definition of their responsibilities

                        *Staff Protecting the President

            *Feeding Nixon's Flaws

                        *Nixon and constant crisis atmosphere

                        *Enemies List

                        *Paranoia        

 

Watergate:

Cambodia Bombing and leaks

Secret investigative unit -- Plumbers

            Their links to the White House and CREP

Watergate Burglary of DNC Headquarters 6/17/72

Investigations

The Tapes

Nixon's position on the tapes

Saturday Night Massacre

Elliott Richardson

Revelations in the Tapes:

            Nixon part of cover-up

            Abuse of Power

            Nixon's claims of innocence

House Judiciary Committee and articles of impeachment

Spiro Agnew

*Gerald Ford becomes VP

*The Pardon

 

Ford and Carter Review

Two incumbents beaten in a row

No-Win Presidency

Crisis of the Presidency

Imperial Presidency

Lying

Presidency and People

Presidency and Media -- Woodward and Bernstein

            Antagonism

*Rise of interest group power

Congressional Power:

            War Powers Resolution

            Clark Amendment

            Congressional Budget and Impoundment Act 1974

                        Impoundment

                        Information and expertise

            Goals of New Congress

 

*Ford and spokes-of-the-wheel

*Rumsfeld as chief of staff

*Halloween Massacre

*1976 election

 

Carter campaign themes

            Honesty

outsider

Carter's theory of Governing

            *No chief of staff

            *Hamilton Jordan

*Alienating the Democrats in Congress

*Economic Problems

*Crisis of Confidence speech

*Iran Hostage Crisis

Carter's misunderstanding of leadership

A Crisis of Leadership?

 

REAGAN:

Reagan's past:

            Happy Midwestern upbringing?

            Acting

            Anti-Communist Democrat

            Goldwater supporter

            Governor of California

Reagan (conservative wing) vs. Bush (moderate wing) in New Hampshire

Landslide over Carter

*Reagan as Republican FDR -- confidence, hope, leadership

*Reagan Beliefs (four priorities) Very important

*Reagan economic philosophy

*Criticism of the New Deal and Great Society

*Principles of Reaganomics

            *Government vs. the Market

            *Return to laissez-faire; rejection of Keynes

Reagan and US political spectrum

*Reagan realignment

*Reagan Coalition

*Undoing the Great Society

 

 

The Teflon President

            Reagan’s slight reality problem

 

*The Troika
*Baker’s role

*Reagan’s disinterest in management

*Baker (pragmatist) vs. True Believers

*Baker and Donald Regan switch jobs

*Regan a disaster as Chief of Staff: poor management, thinking he was more important than the President

*Nancy Reagan power

 

Reagan political strategy

LBJ-style Bargaining compared to Reagan style

Elements of Reagan Media Strategy:

            *Bully Pulpit

            *Stage Events in controlled settings

            Feed the Media

            *Consistency of message -- Line of the Day/Sound Bites

            *Selling the President

            *Popularity = Power

*Iran-Contra

*Weapons to Contras

*Arms to Iran

*lying to Congress

*Congressional reaction: enraged

 

BUSH 41:

1980s Changes

*Reagan realignment

*Reagan success

1984 Election

Government is the problem

Bush as Insider (his experience in government)

Reagan vs. Bush in philosophy and political experience

            The Vision Thing

*Small “c” vs. capital “C” conservatives (This is important)

Who decides the winner?

The success and power of conservative media

            Rush Limbaugh

Fox News

Bush and party loyalty

"The Vision Thing" again

Bush history:

            Moderate Republican

            Appointed jobs for Republican Party -- loyalty

1988: No New Taxes

1990: Budget Deal

1992: a mistake to raise taxes

Gulf War

Wasting opportunities after the Gulf

Bush and failure to remake the party

Movement Conservatives win the day

 

 

 

CLINTON:

Democratic Party after 1984 election

Context

Why the growth of a moderate center?

            *Democrats lost South

*Impact of Reagan revolution (shifting US politics to the right)

*Deficit

            tax revolts of 1970s and 1980s

            economic slowdown since 1970s

            perceived failure of:

                        1. Democratic New Deal/Great Society

                        2. Reaganomics

Fight in each Party

            *Democrats: centrist vs. liberal – centrists win

*New Democrats – Democratic Leadership Council

            Socially liberal

            Fiscally Conservative

            Pro-Business

            Government has limited, but important role

*Clinton as New Democrat

Education reform in Arkansas

1992 election: Three way race

Ross Perot

President elected with only 43% of the vote

 

Is Clinton really a New Democrat?

1.       Gays in the military

2.       *Health care    

3.       *Budget

4.       Triangulation and Welfare reform

5.       Trade

            Fighting protectionist Democrats

Economic world order building and globalization

            Pro-business Democrat

                        Aggressive promotion of free trade

Modernizing the workforce

Republicans take the House and Senate 1994

The trust issue

Scandals and accusations

The Gingrich Style: GoPac Memo

Clinton haters

 

Whitewater investigations (not the details)

*Vince Foster’s death

Lewinsky

*Ken Starr

*House impeaches

*Senate acquits

*Undisciplined Clinton

*as his own Chief of Staff

*Thomas McLarty as Chief

*Leon Panetta to save the day

 

George W. Bush (Bush 43)

Bush background

            Prescott and Bush 41

            Governor of Texas (moderate Republican)

*2000 Election

            Gore (pretends Clinton doesn’t exist)

No winner on election day

            Florida recount

            537 votes

            Impact of third party candidate (Nader)

            The red and Blue map and polarization

*Bush as uniter and divider

*Goal of Republican unity instead of bipartisanship

*strategy of division or polarization

Trying to satisfy all conservative wings of Republican Party

Compassionate conservatism

 

Pre-modern presidency vs. modern presidency

Modern presidency as crisis presidency

Post-Modern Presidency?

            Cold War ends

Fate of Bush 41, Clinton, and Bush 43 before 9/11

Impeachment of Clinton

Modern presidency really a crisis presidency and crisis has ended

Characteristics of Post-Modern Presidency

Weak executive

Powerful Congress

Madisonian style checks and balances

Governor of the USA?

 

Then 9/11

Crisis presidency reborn/New imperial presidency

Example of Bush increasing power

Example of Restraint on Bush

Congress and Courts restrain Bush quickly

Example of AUMF – unlimited power?

            Military Order and Detainees

            Used by Obama and Trump

 

Unitary Executive Theory

            Executive power and Congressional oversight?

            National security

Signing Statements and Unitary Executive Theory

 

Bush approval ratings decline

Iraq, Katrina, Great Recession

 

 

Obama

Obama background

Born in Honolulu, HI (which is a state of the US)

From Illinois State Senate to White House in four years

Balancing inexperience with experience in picking VP Biden (like Bush and Cheney)

*McCain-Palin (conservative and Movement Conservative)

            *Palin as a precursor to Trump style

*The Birthers

2008 victory

Great Recession

Obama response: FDR style government spending

Massive deficits

*Affordable care Act (Obamacare)

*Reaction to Obama Care

            *Legitimate criticism vs. demagoguery

*Birth of TEA Party

*TEA Party fringe elements

Obama ultimately loses House and Senate to Republicans

Obama wins reelection

*Republican Strategy: refuse to pass Obama legislation

Merrick Garland example

Obama strategy: executive orders

DREAM Act example

            Legislation stalls

            Obama implements law as if legislation passed

Obama approval record

            No Drama Obama

 

 

Trump

The crisis in US democracy

Demagoguery

Lies and The Big ie
January 6, 2021

What comparative politics tells us about the future of elections if people believe The Big Lie

Covid19, vaccinations, disinformation, and the loyalty to the leader

Trump and populism nationalism/neo-authoritarianism

 

1.    Election of 2016

Republican Primaries: Trump defeats establishment Republicans

            His style

Clinton vs. Trump

Ugliness of the election

Two unpopular candidates

Trump wins Electoral College; loses popular vote

            Third party candidates

States that voted for Obama and Trump

            And manufacturing decline

Russia, Disinformation, and Trump Campaign

Mueller Report

 

 

2. Trump Policies

Movement Conservative Policies

            A satisfied constituency

Pro-life Justices

            Gorsuch and Kavanaugh and Barrett

Evangelical Support

Trump Policy on Immigration

Trump Policy on Trade

 

3. Trump Style

Twitter

Attacking

Lying

Roy Cohn Style

Trump is Cohn protégé

 

4. Impeachments

Allegations against Biden

Ukraine investigations

US aid to Ukraine withheld by Trump to get Ukraine to announce investigation of Biden

            Extortion

First Impeachment

            Acquitted

Second Impeachment and January 6

            Acquitted

Job approval plummets

Biden elected

 

Terms from Sykes

*battle among conservatives

*alternative reality bubble

            *impact of hyperpartisanship

            *misinformation/demagoguery

            *polarization and sorting

*Hatred of media

*belief in conspiracy theories

*the negativity and anger

*Trump as a deal with the devil for Republican Party?

*TEA Party taken over by political operatives

*Radicalization of the party

*Refusal to compromise

*Radio and television becomes more radical, sets the agenda

*ideological purity

*social media amplifies

*end of journalism norms on the net

*Breitbart/Alex Jones

*Power of Fox News

*Impact of Rush Limbaugh

            *Supports Trump 2015

*Alt Right

*Antisemitism

*Racism and white nationalists

*”Culture War”

*Belief that democrats are anti-Christian

*Anger at mainstream media

 

Terms from Brownstein relating to Red and Blue Polarization thesis

*Brownstein’s main thesis:

            *The Democratic and Republican parties had both been coalitions of conservative and moderate/liberal elements

*In the 1960s this began to change (Civil Rights, Great Society, Vietnam, collapse of the New Deal Coalition and rise of the Reagan Coalition)

*Conservatives Democrats began to move to the Republican Party; Moderate Republicans began to move to the Democratic Party

*This led to a new party system: A conservative party faced off against a liberal party

*The result is greater polarization

 

Populist Nationalism or Neo-Authoritarianism

 

To Establish Authority

1.       Personalistic Rule

 

2.       Conspiracy Theories

 

3.       “Alternative Facts”

 

4.       Attacks on the Press

 

5.       Attacks on Institutions

 

To Delegitimize Opponents

 

1.       Scapegoating

 

2.       Trolling of Critics/Rivals

 

3.       Encouraging Violence against Press and Political Opponents

 

4.       Calls for Jailing Political Opponents

 

5.       Declaration of Fraud at Elections that Don’t Go as Planned