The very short version of China and Taiwan

POLI 363 US Foreign Policy

(Also use this: Super Short Summary of US Policy (from Congressional Research Service, CRS)

Japan occupied China during World War II. When Japan was defeated, a civil war broke out between the Nationalists (Kuomintang or Goumindang) led by Chiang Kai-shek and the Communists led by Mao Zedong. The Nationalists were the official government of the Republic of China. The war was a continuation of a struggle between the two groups that goes back to the 1920s. The US tried to mediate between the two factions in 1946 and 1947, but eventually gave up, deciding that the Nationalists were too corrupt and inefficient to win and that preventing the Communists from winning would require a full-scale US intervention in China. The Communists won the war in October 1949, proclaiming the birth of the People’s Republic of China. The Nationalists fled to the island of Taiwan where they set up a Republic of China government in exile and pledged themselves to retaking the mainland. The US eventually backed the Nationalists as an anti-Communist Cold War ally (by 1950). The US recognized the Republic of China government (that controlled the island of Taiwan across the Taiwan Strait) as the only government of China, and ignored the Communist government that controlled the mainland and almost all of China’s territory and population. The US also fought Communist Chinese forces directly during the Korean War. China and the US had almost no diplomatic contact during the 1950s and 1960s except an on-again, off-again series of talks in Warsaw, Poland (where the two sides mostly criticized each other). It was a classic Cold War situation: the US and its ally (Taiwan) vs. the Soviet Union and its ally (China), each recognizing a different government of China. The US-allied government on Taiwan controlled the UN Security Council set for China.

The Soviet and Chinese relationship soured in the late 1950s and then got so bad the two nations went to war in 1969. The US and China discovered that they both feared the Soviet Union more then they feared each other. A diplomatic opening in 1971 led to a visit to China by President Richard Nixon in February 1972. The Shanghai Communique established the ground rules for the relationship between the two nations:

· Both agreed there is only one China and Taiwan is part of China

· There will be eventual reunification of China and Taiwan. The US says that it wants that reunification to be achieved peacefully.

· China will not renounce the use of force as means to achieve reunification.

The opening of communication between the two nations led to the following.

· Taiwan had the Permanent UN Security Council seat until 1971. China took the seat and Taiwan withdrew from the UN in protest. It is still not in the UN.

· The US and China established formal diplomatic relations on January 1, 1979.

· The US withdrew its troops on China by May 1979.

· The US withdrew from its Mutual Defense Treaty with Taiwan on January 1, 1980.

· The US relationship with Taiwan is governed by US legislation, most importantly the Taiwan Relations Act of April 1979. The basics:

· US and Taiwan will have unofficial diplomatic relations. Each nation eventually created non-embassy embassies (unofficial institutes that essentially did everything an embassy does but does it unofficially). The US has an American Institute in Taiwan located in Taipei. Taiwan has the Taiwan Economic and Cultural Representative Office (TECRO) based in Washington DC.

· The US will provide Taiwan military assistance to defend itself.

· The two nations will remain key trading partners.

· The US-Chinese relationship is also governed by two other Communiques:

· Joint Communique 1979 which established formal relations

· Joint Communique 1982 which ironed out some leftover issues regarding the US relationship with China and Taiwan. In this communique the US pledged to reduce its arms sales to Taiwan over time, indirectly saying that eventually US arms sales to Taiwan will end.

· But at the same time the US signed the 1982 Joint Communique it stated the Six Assurances of 1982 in hearings before the US Congress and in diplomatic messages to Taiwan. One of the assurances was that the US would not set a deadline for the end of arms sales to Taiwan. Another was that the US would not consult with China concerning US arms sales to Taiwan. Perhaps more importantly, President Reagan, who signed the 1982 Communique and who approved the Six Assurances, also wrote a top-secret memo detailing his interpretations of both these documents. He wrote the memo on August 17, 1982 and put it in a safe in the White House where it has been used by every president since as a guided to US-Taiwan-China relations. It was declassified in 2019. Importantly, the memo says this: US arms sales to Taiwan are entirely based on the level of threat Chian poses to Taiwan. Therefore, if that threat increases, then US arms sales to Taiwan can increase to allow Taiwan to meet this threat.

· In the 1980s, Taiwan transitioned to a democratic system and that has made it even more difficult for Taiwan to merge with China. Taiwan is a vibrant, free and open democratic nation. It has two major parties (and some smaller ones). The old Nationalist Party, the KMT, is now simply one of the major parties. Though it pledges itself to eventual unification with China, while China remains a dictatorship the KMT emphasizes the “eventual” aspect. It is more amenable to cooperation with China, politically and economically than other Taiwanese parties. The newer party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is often hostile to China, but it is careful about discussions of independence which might lead to Chinese military action. Many of its leaders have called for independence from China.

§ Another complication for reunification in any time frame is that most citizens of Taiwan consider themselves Taiwanese, not Chinese, and oppose reunification with China.

· China makes it clear.

· Taiwan is part of China and if it declares independence – says it no longer wants to unify but wants to become and independent country -- China will invade.

· China wants Taiwan to unify with China under the same formula used when Hong Kong unified with China – “one country, two systems.” The idea was that Hong Kong would become part of China, but remain a self-governing city where the Communist party in Beijing would not interfere. But China has been cracking down on freedom of speech, press, and association in Hong Kong since 2014. Many of Hong Kong’s outspoken advocates for human rights and democracy are in jail now. Taiwan was not very interested in the one country, two systems idea in the first place. Now, the idea is repugnant to Taiwan; to most Taiwanese citizens, it seems clear than reunification would lead to thousands of people being thrown in jail, essentially an entire generation of political leaders.

· China and Taiwan (when ruled by the KMT) agreed on the 1992 Consensus, a formula for both parties to work out their differences over time, partly based on one China, two systems.

· The US relationship with Taiwan is still close. Taiwan is a key ally even though the US does not recognize it as a nation. That’s a fuzzy concept. The US has ties to a government and a people, and works on their behalf to keep Taiwan economically, political, and military independent, even if neither nation uses that word.

· The US relationship with China has changed significantly. In the 1970s, the glue of the relationship was the threat from the USSR. By the mid-1980s and 1990s to today, the relationship is held together by trade. US-China trade is the biggest trading relationship in the world.

· But what if China attacked Taiwan? Would the US defend Taiwan? US policy is based on strategic ambiguity. We traditionally don’t say we will defend Taiwan, but we warn China that any attack on Taiwan will have the “gravest consequences” or some other wording of a deterrent threat. There is even a strong debate today about whether the US should retain its posture of strategic ambiguity and instead move to strategic clarity where the US explicitly says that if China uses force against Taiwan, the US will absolutely, positively defend Taiwan military.

· The US often sends naval ships through the Taiwan Strait to send a message to China about not attacking Taiwan

· China has had military exercises that simulate attacks on Taiwan (firing ballistic missiles over Taiwan or sending dozens of aircraft halfway across the Taiwan Strait, then having them turn back). Note the Chinese outrage and military response (massive exercises) when US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan and met with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen in the summer of 2022.

· In 1996, as Taiwan had its first direct democratic presidential election, China responded with missile tests and military exercises to coerce the nation. The US responded by sending aircraft carriers through the Taiwan Strait. The two nations almost went to war.

· In response, the Clinton administration and Congress gave more weapons to Taiwan, but also stated the “Three No’s”: No Taiwan independence; No one China and one Taiwan; and no Taiwan representation in international organizations where statehood is a requirement. The result was that everyone backed down and Clinton and then Chinese President Jiang Zemin met at several summits.

· Today, as China is emerging more and more as peer competitor that openly wants to challenge US leadership in the world, many people see the US and China moving toward a new cold war, a new great power rivalry similar to the US-Soviet rivalry.

· Under President Xi Jinping (2012--?), China remains a dictatorship. It is more repressive today than it was during the 1990s. It is also becoming more assertive in its foreign policy. Some argue China wants to eliminate US influence in East Asia, and to achieve global influence equal to that of the US. One clue to China’s thinking was the China-Russia Joint Statement on world affairs from February 2022. The statement was a direct criticism of US leadership and US interventionism, and a call for a new international system to replace the one designed and led by the US since the end of WW II. A few days after the joint statement Russia invaded Ukraine.

· Congress even mandates that the US Department of Defense give an annual report on Chinese military power, just like the old Soviet Military Power reports of the 1980s.

· And there is a movement in Congress to tighten the relationship between the US and Taiwan. There is the Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Act TAIPEI Act 2019 and a bill currently being considered in congress, the Taiwan Policy Act 2022, that would go even further than the 2019 legislation.

· Today, both the US and China assume that they need to prepare for war with each other even as they hope to prevent that war. A useful guide to what that war might be like is a new report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies which reviews a set of simulations of US-China conflict over Taiwan. See Mark Cancian, Matthew Cancian, and Eric Higgenbotham. The First Battle of the Next War: US-China Conflict over Taiwan (Washington DC: CSIS, January 2023.

For good quick overviews of current issues, go to War on the Rocks and search under Taiwan or China

Reference Links on US Policy

All Three Communiques and Taiwan Relations Act 1979

Super Short Summary of US Policy (from Congressional Research Service, CRS)

Shanghai Communique

Joint Communique 1979

Join Communique 1982

Taiwan Relations Act 1979 (PL-96-8, April 1979)

Six Assurances 1982

August 17, 1982 Memo from President Reagan

Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Act TAIPEI Act 2019 (PL-116-135, March 2020)

Taiwan Policy Act 2022 (Summary of bill for consideration)