POLI 363 US Foreign Policy Spring 2024

Simulation Day One

The problem: Tensions across the Taiwan Strait have been increasing for several years now. How should the US prepare for the possibility of Chinese actions to coerce or attack Taiwan? Think in terms of the likely actions by China, and the corresponding responses available for the US. In short, for each of the likely scenarios, how should the US prepare?

Ultimately, the president would like a document that

1. Lists the possible Chinese actions. Can possible Chinese actions be listed in the order of their likelihood?

2. How should the US should prepare for each of these options?

For all of this, think in terms of diplomatic, economic, and military threats and options.

Think about alliances.

Think about efforts to deter China and what the US might be willing to do it deterrence fails.

See PRD 18 for the full range of issues the president would like the interagency process to consider.

Session One

Schedule

11-11:30: Department/Agency meetings to prepare agency priorities and policy recommendations

· Departments/Agencies involved will meet in the following groupings. The senior official of the Department/Agency should take attendance. If there is anyone missing, please notify me; this might change membership of some of the Interagency Committees

· Each Department/Agency should think about how it views the threats from China and the US policy options. You’ll meet in these groupings:

o Department of State

o Department of Defense

o Department of Treasury and Department of Justice (Secretary of Treasury Chairs)

o National Security Council Staff, USTR Office, and White House Staff (National Security Advisor chairs)

o Intelligence Community

11:30-12:00: Interagency meetings

· NSC/PC, NSC/DC, all NSC/PCCs to work on ironing out interagency differences to build consensus and policy recommendations for committees above them in hierarchy

§ NSC/PC to decide any directions it has for NSC/DC; NSC/DC to decide any directions it has for NSC/PCCs

§ See below for membership of each committee

12:00-12:15: Department/Agency meetings to discuss any decisions or new tasks/analyses set by the interagency meetings

At all sessions, everyone should take notes. You’re making decisions; they need to be recorded.

Interagency Committees

(The Chair should take attendance. If there is anyone missing, please notify me; this might change membership of some of these Committees)

National Security Council Principals Committee (NSC/PC)

1. Chair: National Security Advisor

2. Secretary of State

3. Secretary of Defense

4. Secretary of Treasury

5. Attorney General

6. Director of National Intelligence

7. Chair Joint Chiefs of Staff

8. US Trade Representative

9. US Ambassador to the United Nations

10. White House Chief of Staff

National Security Council Deputies Committee NSC/DC

1. Chair: Principal Deputy National Security Advisor

2. Deputy Secretary of State

3. Deputy Secretary of Defense

4. Deputy Secretary of Treasury

5. Deputy Attorney General

6. Deputy Director of National Intelligence

7. Vice Chair JCS

8. Director of Central Intelligence

9. Director of WH Office of Legislative Affairs

National Security Council Policy Coordinating Committees (NSC/PCCs)

China PCC

1. Chair, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs

2. Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs

3. Director of CIA China Mission Center

4. Assistant USTR for China Affairs

East Asia PCC

1. Chair, Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for East Asia and Oceania

2. Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs

3. Assistant Secretary of State for International Organization Affairs (IO)

4. Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs

Strategic Affairs PCC

1. Chair, Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Strategic Planning

2. Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs

3. Under Secretary of Defense for Policy