Fake National Security Council

VCU

Richmond, Virginia

May 8, 2023

TOP SECRET (Not Really)

Presidential Directive 64

TO: The Secretary of State

The Secretary of Defense

The Secretary of Energy

The Secretary of the Treasury

The Attorney General

The Director of National Intelligence

The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

The White House Chief of Staff

The Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs

SUBJECT: Potential Chinese Action against Taiwan

PRD 18 directed the National Security Council to review US options in the event of aggressive Chinese action against Taiwan.

As a result of this review and an NSC meeting on May 2, the President has made the following decisions.

1. US planning will proceed from the assumption that Chinese action against Taiwan will occur in the following manner, from most likely to least likely:

a. Military exercises intended to intimidate Taiwan and influence its domestic politics

b. Cyber attacks

c. Economic coercion

d. Naval blockade

e. Military invasion

f. Use of nuclear weapons

2. The US should recognize that Chinese actions against Taiwan are likely to be economic in nature; China will try to cripple the Taiwanese economy before it uses any actual military force.

3. US policy will refrain from antagonizing China. This issue needs further study.

4. US policy will be to use diplomacy as the initial strategy to deter China. Diplomacy will have several components:

a. Multilateral efforts that strengthen allies in the region, militarily and economically;

b. A Summit meeting of the US, Japan, India, Australia, and South Korea to consider efforts to deter China and reduce Taiwan’s vulnerability to economic and military coercion. The Summit will include non-security issues such as climate change to make it less provocative to China;

c. The Five Power Summit can be followed by a larger summit including ASEAN nations;

d. Multilateral efforts can also include interested nations such as France, and the United Nations;

e. The US may also use a tit-for-tat strategy that responds to Chinese diplomatic coercion against nations in the region;

f. An element of these efforts is to appear less dictatorial to allies, a means of highlighting the differences between US and Chinese leadership in East Asia;

g. The US must avoid becoming dependent on allies in the region.

5. Persuading nations in the region to take a tougher stance against potential Chinese aggression is an important goal. To that end, the US will work to reduce the vulnerability of nations in East Asian to Chinese economic coercion.

a. This will include military and economic aid to nations in the region;

b. The purpose of economic aid is to compete with China in granting aid and loans to nations for infrastructure projects to prevent China from using the Belt and Road Initiative as a means of economic coercion.

6. Commensurate with US obligations under the Taiwan Relations Act

a. the US will work to reduce Taiwan’s vulnerability to economic and military coercion;

b. the US will supply Taiwan with the military equipment it needs to be able to defend itself, and sustain that defense while the US and allies prepare to assist it;

c. the US will work toward making Taiwan energy independence in event of a naval blockade.

7. Political-military efforts to deter China will include

a. a shift in overall US defense sending toward favoring Navy and Air Force assets in the region;

b. naval exercises that illustrate US and allied capability to close key chokepoints in the Indo-Pacific area that China depends on for trade and energy;

c. continued exercises with regional allies such as the Philippines and Australia;

d. partnership with nations such as India to guarantee freedom of navigation in the Pacific and Indian Oceans.