Classified/Top Secret (No, Just Kidding)
April 30, 2024
Presidential Directive 37: Chinese Coercion against Taiwan
To:
Secretary of State
Secretary of Defense
Secretary of the Treasury
Attorney General
National Security Advisor
White House Chief of Staff
US Trade Representative
US Ambassador to the United Nations
CC:
Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff
Director of National Intelligence
Subject: Response to PRD 18: Potential Chinese Action
against Taiwan
On January 16, 2024, the President initiated an interagency
review of potential Chinese coercion of Taiwan and what options might be
available for the US to deter and respond to those actions.
Chinese Options in order of likelihood:
a.
Economic Disruption: We expect China to use some type of
economic measures to coerce Taiwan into considering reunification with
China. Economic coercion might include
sanctions against Taiwanese companies or nations that trade with Taiwan, and
even shipping disruptions. Economic coercion is designed to increase or
highlight Taiwanese economic dependence on the mainland.
b.
Political Disruption: China is also likely to use
misinformation or cyberattacks to subvert or disrupt Taiwan’s electoral
process. The aim of these efforts is to reduce confidence in the Taiwanese
system and the current government. Weakening and delegitimizing the current
system is seen by China as a way of decreasing public resistance to
reunification.
c.
Military Options: A full range of options are available to
China -- from naval blockades to limited missile strikes to amphibious invasion
to a full-scale invasion.
The President has indicated that the interagency process should begin a study
that focuses on potential Chinese military actions – the full-range of options,
the likelihood of each option, and a specific estimate of what dates China
would be ready to initiate each option.
Another PRD will be drafted with instructions.
The US should prepare to use a full range of contingencies
in response to these actions.
a.
Economic Response:
1. Bilateral
and multilateral initiatives with states like Japan and potentially India to
ensure free trade and limit Chinese economic expansion.
2. Retaliation
or mirrored sanctions on China, such as restrictions on trade of components for
weapon’s systems, restrictions on Chinese ownership of US companies and
investment in technologies within the US, and expansion of the TAIPEI Act of
2020 (which encourages the US to consider rethinking US economic relationships
with nations that undermine the economy or security of Taiwan).
3. Use of
the Quad and AUKUS to increase economic co-operation in the region.
4. Increased
trade with Taiwan and reduction any existing trade barriers to Taiwan to guard
against Chinese economic coercion and to reduce Taiwan’s dependence on the
Chinese economy.
5. Use of
multilateral announcements of strategic clarity which make it clear that the US
and allies will respond to any Chinese economic provocations in East Asia.
6. Reduction
of US economic dependence on China to prepare the US economy for potential
disruptions of the US-Chinese economic relationship.
7. Actions
to increase US leverage over its trade partners by increasing their dependence
on the US economy. This should be done through persuasion, not coercion.
Possible military responses to China’s actions will be addressed in a forthcoming presidential directive, pending further study as indicated above.