STATISTICS/SOCIOLOGY 508 
Introduction to Social Statistics 
Dr. Neil W. Henry


OFFICE: 2037c Oliver Hall (Statistical Sciences and Operations Research) 
Telephone: 828-1301 ext 124 
Electronic mail : nhenry@vcu.edu 
Website:           http://www.people.vcu.edu/~nhenry 
Classrooms: 2224 Temple on Mondays. Computer Lab Hibbs B008 on Wednesdays.

An e-mail address is required of all students. Send me an email message immediately!

COMPUTING  OTHER READING   GRADING  OUTLINE  HANDOUTS

REQUIRED TEXT:

STATISTICAL METHODS FOR THE SOCIAL SCIENCES, by Alan Agresti and Barbara Finlay, 3rd edition, 1997. Prentice-Hall. At the VCU Bookstore. This semester we will cover Chapters 1 - 6 and 8. SOC/STA 608, which I will teach in the spring, will cover Chapters 7 - 14.

COMPUTING (SPSS):

We will meet once a week, on Wednesdays, in the College computer classroom, Hibbs B008. If you bring a diskette or zip disk with you to the lab sessions you can save data, output or notes for use on other computers. You can also send files you produce in class to yourself by attaching them to email. I expect students to be familiar with email and text processing software (e.g. WORD).

The class will introduce you to the Windows version of SPSS. The current version is 13.0.  VCU has a site license that allows us to distribute SPSS for Windows to all students, faculty and staff.  For a nominal fee of $15 you can get a CD-ROM that contains version 12.0 at the VCU ONLINE stores in the Student Commons and the MCV Campus Bookstore. This is a really good deal! I urge you to buy and install this software on your own computer if it satisfies the minimum requirements. SPSS says that minimum requirements are Microsoft® Windows® 95, 98 or NT® 4.0, 68MB available hard drive space, and 32MB RAM. I would not recommend using it without at least  64MB RAM, however. 

I will assign some computer work outside of class. If you do not have a PC that you can install SPSS on, you can use a VCU computer to do these assignments. The computers in the public access lab in Hibbs are setup identically to the ones in B008, and most of the other public access computer  labs at VCU have SPSS installed. Your school or department may also have a computer lab with SPSS available to graduate students. Prentice-Hall publishes a lot of SPSS books. The most widely known is probably the Guide to Data Analysis by M. Norusis.  The first edition appeared some 20 years ago, and it has evolved along with the software. This book is a handy reference text to SPSS usage and statistical methods. It costs over $60, however, and a used copy of earlier versions of the book will serve almost as well. A less expensive Brief Guide to SPSS  is also available, but I would rather have you learn to use the excellent online help in SPSS. http://www.at.vcu.edu/faq/spssonlinedoc.html .
You do not really need books like these for this course!


RECOMMENDED READING:

These books are quite different from the text and from each other, but I think you will find something useful in each of them. I will be stealing material from all of them, and occasionally admitting it. 
The American Psychological Association has published a Task Force Report entitled Statistical Methods in Psychology Journals: Guidelines and Explanations. Since the task force included several people whom I quote, and steal material from, in my classes, I am happy to say that it is an excellent report. It contains a lot of advice that should make sense to students in this class, and I recommend it highly. 

VIDEO:

The video series Against All Odds (Inside Statistics)   produced by the Annenberg Foundation is a nice introduction to modern statistical thinking. All 26 half-hour episodes should be available in the Cabell Library Media Center (3rd floor). Many beginning students find it helpful to use this resource. I urge you to sample from the first few tapes during the first weeks of the semester and decide for yourself..

INTERNET RESOURCES:

It seems as though new resources for statistics are being created every day. One useful site is at The Claremont Colleges' web interface for statistical education. This site includes tutorials as well as links to other resources such as the Chance Project at Dartmouth College (where I first studied probability theory and stochastic processes). I particularly like the interactive graphics that demonstrate how the Central Limit Theorem works: try it now

GRADING AND HOMEWORK:

The final exam will have a take-home and an in-class segment.  There will also be two quizzes during the semester. These tests will make up 40% of the grade. Graded homework assignments will make up 40% of the grade, and the remaining 20% will be based on class participation including journals (see below) and, of course, attendance. There will be 3 or 4 graded assignments during the semester. Usually you will have a week to work on them. 

I will mention my favorite problems from each chapter of A&F as we go along.  Short, primarily numerical, answers to many odd-numbered problems are included in the text. You should work on these exercises and browse others to see what the authors consider to be "interesting questions." It is a good idea to keep a looseleaf workbook of exercises and you should turn some of them in to get maximum benefit from your tuition. Even if they are not part of graded assignments I will be glad to critique them. I will comment on some in class even without being asked to. 

I urge you to review, revise and resubmit exercises and graded assignments that you have trouble with. Studying in groups is an excellent idea, but unless otherwise noted collaboration is not permitted on graded assignments

I want you to keep a journal,  containing your reactions to the text and to outside readings, as well as to the lectures and exercises. A journal is a way to reflect on problems, lectures and reading, distinct from class notes and problems. Keep an eye out for writing in your discipline that reports statistical research or applies statistical methods, and include in your journal items that relate to the course in some way. You will find the class more useful if you keep alert to how its topics show up in your everyday reading, both professional and non-professional. It turns out to be very useful to write about statistical ideas and problems, not simply to ask a question and hear a reply. Statistics is not simply a matter of calculating and reporting numbers, it demands interpretive and rhetorical skills as well.

Most students find it convenient to submit journal entries, problems and assignments by e-mail. I find it convenient to receive them that way!


OUTLINE OF TOPICS:


TENTATIVE SCHEDULE Fall 2003:

 
WEEK
READING
COMMENTS
August 30
Chapters 1, 2
Data, Sampling, Quick Tour of SPSS 
September 8 (Wed.)
Continued
Data entry and editing in SPSS
September  13
Chapter 3 
Univariate summary statistics and related graphics
September 20
Chapter 4.1, 4.2
Probability Distributions;  Assignment 1 due
September 27
Chapter 4.3 - 4.6
Sampling Distributions
October 4
Chapter 5.1 
Estimation; Quiz on Ch 1-4 
October 11
Chapter 5.2-5.4, 5.6
Confidence Intervals; 
October 18
Continued
Complex Sampling Issues; Assignment 2 due;
October 25
Chapter 6.1 - 6.3
Significance Testing, means and proportions; 
November 1
Chapter 6.4, 6.5, 6.8
Significance Testing Issues; Withdraw date Friday
November 8
Chapter 7.2, 7.4
Comparing two proportions; McNemar test;  Quiz on Ch 5-6
November 15
Chapter 8.1, 8.2
Chisquare tests; Assignment 3 due
November 22
Chapter 8.3 - 8.7
No Class Wed.
November 29
Continued 
Association in Contingency Tables 
December 6
Review
December 13
Final Exam Scheduled Wed.
Final Assignment due Monday

Comments on readings:

·MacKenzie on Statistics in Britain 1865-1930: The social construction of knowledge

A remarkable presentation of the roots of modern statistics.

Although MacKenzie writes as a sociologist of science, his evaluation of the work of Francis Galton, Karl Pearson and R.A. Fisher provides an excellent summary of their contributions to the development of mathematical statistics as we know it today. His sociological thesis is that the primary concepts of statistics were "invented", not "discovered", and that the social position of  these men strongly influenced the content of their works. While this not a radical position today (at least in sociological circles) it was, in 1987, relatively unfamiliar to many statisticians. 

All three of the major figures studied were connected to the eugenics movement, and MacKenzie examines the relationship of eugenics and biometry to their work in mathematical statistics. He shows how Fisher's Genetical Theory of Natural Selection evidences the eugenics goals which are usually associated with the older Pearson. While it is a bit trickier to connect Fisher's books on Scientific Inference and Statistical Methods to eugenics, MacKenzie is quite convincing. 

I regret not having read this book ten years ago, since it clarified several issues that I have been struggling with as a teacher of statistics. I looked it up as a result of a reference in an article by John Aldrich in the journal Statistical Science (Vol. 10, No. 4, 364-376) on Karl Pearson and G. U. Yule's views of spurious correlation. Statistical Science, by the way, often contains interesting articles on the history of statistics.

Abelson on Statistics as Principled Argument

Abelson is a mathematical psychologist and statistician who, after 40 years of teaching statistics at Yale, has written a book for his  students to read after they have taken the "normal" statistical curriculum. His alternative title is "Lots of things you ought to know about statistics but are too stupefied to ask."He reflects upon the way traditional statistics instruction (in psychology, but also in many other disciplines) fails to communicate the ways in which statistical methodology should serve rhetorical and narrative functions. Assigning it to you while you are taking this course is too subversive a thing to do, so I won't, but I will secretly quote some of his insights now and then.  You may enjoy browsing it eventually(!). It’s $32.50 from amazon.com.

Becker on Social Research

Since Abelson had been one of the first mathematical social psychologists I read in the early ‘60s, I was ready to be impressed by his book, and I was. My latest award for most interesting reflections by a fellow geezer goes to Howard S. Becker, a sociologist whose 40 year career parallels Abelson’s in curious ways. Becker, known as a qualitative social researcher, has written on subjects as apparently diverse as medical education, marijuana use, and the art world. In this book he explains what it means to have a sociological perspective on the world, and why social research is possible.Along the way he talks about such statistically related topics as random sampling (and its alternatives), models, causal inference and quotes admiringly several authorities not usually associated with qualitative social research such as John Tukey and Paul Lazarsfeld.   At amazon.com.


SOME PAPERS I HAVE WRITTEN FOR THIS CLASS





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Updated August 16, 2004
Neil W. Henry